Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Succcessful Forex Trading May Be As Much a Function of Self-Knowledge As It Is Technical Understanding

Visiting an Indian casino to eat dinner and play a little blackjack the other night, I got to thinking that a lack of education isn’t the only challenge facing Forex traders. Maybe, just maybe the biggest problem is human frailty - the abiding, perhaps genic disposition in some to believe there’s an easy way to riches, that the accumulation of wealth is a matter of good luck rather than hard work.

When I visit the local casino, I limit my play to a maximum of one hour and never bring more than $50 to the table leaving my ATM card in the underwear drawer. If I lose that money before the hour turns, I leave. If I find myself ahead by as little as $20, I leave. Over the years the strategy has paid off. I obviously haven’t made a lot of money at the blackjack table, but a majority of the time I have managed to pay for dinner.

The three players sitting at the table with me the other night had different approaches to the game. One kept losing and dipping into his shirt pocket to pull out yet another $20 bill. He left the table to hit the ATM twice, returning to the table each time to fulfill an apparent death wish.
One was way ahead and then piddled it away doubling up. He had a pretty blond at his side so I’m guessing he was less interested in winning than impressing his girl friend. They soon left and didn’t return. The third, I think, was just there to get drunk.

For me the corollary to Forex is all too obvious. The first gentleman not only didn’t know the odds associated with the cards he was dealt, he had a serious gambling problem. The only odds he was playing were those that would lead us to believe that sooner or later our luck has to change. Romeo was probably driven more by his ego. The third, well, I think he was playing out of shear boredom.

There are three object lessons to be learned here.

If you’ve ever been driven to lose everything you have all at a table game or slot machine, steer clear of the Forex. You don’t have enough money. What’s more, even if you did, your “winnings” would never be enough to satisfy the need you have for excitement.

If you’re ego involved, forget it. If you can’t deal with losses without taking it personally, writhing in bed at night feeling guilty about an error in judgment or a lost opportunity, you’re probably going to be governed by your emotions rather than your intellect.

Worse yet, if you are impatient or are easily bored, find something more exciting to do. There are going to be times when you find yourself staring at a computer screen through several trading sessions before a trading opportunity arises.

Recommendation

Before you starting investing, do yourself a favor. Do a little soul searching.

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