Wednesday, May 31, 2006

More on Boredom: Is It the Underlying Cause of Trader Failure? One Experienced Trader Seems to Think So.

Ran into a fellow day trader at the Farmer’s Market off Fairfax this morning and she joined me for breakfast. (Not a date or anything. She’s in her early 30s and I’m, well, old enough to be her grandfather.) Anyway, after an exchange of pleasantries and family news, we got to talking shop and the discussion turned to my blog, specifically the study I alluded to regarding trader behavior which begged the question: “Why do you suppose so many traders find themselves losing it all.”

Becky, a little wiser I think than most of her contemporaries, was quick to respond - “Impatience, impatience, impatience.” She went on to posit that if her experience was any indication most traders are drawn to the game by greed. They open a demo account. They get bored. Boredom leads to premature trading. Premature trading leads to failure.”

Wow. Couldn’t have put it better myself. Pretty much reflects my earliest trading experience.

“So what’s the solution,” I asked.

Her paraphrased answer was equally insightful. “Eliminate the boredom. Create a computer game that will enable entry level traders to play the Forex in warp mode. Upload market data, click through to a promising candlestick formation, make a call, fast forward to see if the strategy worked. Do this over and over again until you either prove or disprove a given trading strategy. Once you can find yourself routinely making good calls 70-80% of the time, you’re ready to start trading,” she said.

Sounds like a great idea, doesn’t it? Any gaming programmers out there willing to give it a shot? Any investors out there willing to put up the money to get such a game developed and marketed?

Note: If you’re ever in LA, incidentally, the Kokomo CafĂ© is an institution. The 50's open air diner located on the south side of the old market place has been around for a gazillion years and is one of the preferred hangouts for retired Hollywood producers and script writers. Great food - scrambled, thick bacon, great coffee, and cinnamon coffee cake and great service - meals are always served with a smile.

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